Wednesday, April 27, 2005

Lebanon: Syria Not Ready to let go?

From Debka Main Page:

DEBKAfile reveals: After Syrian troops and intelligence units staged a ceremonial leave-taking from Lebanon Tuesday, Syrian president Assad reactivated the defunct External Intelligence Agency.

Straight from officiating at the leave-taking ceremony, General Roustum Ghazalah, Syrian military intelligence chief in Lebanon, and his 300 officers, received a presidential directive to carry on with their former undercover duties in Lebanon, operating out of Damascus from the EIA.

This is something that I would expect Syria to try and do. They need Lebanon for money, and will no doubt try and use local contacts, plus Hizb'allah, to keep as much money flowing their way as they can. Fortunately for the people of Lebanon, I don't think it will work.

B
|

Sunday, April 24, 2005

Still Looking for Help

If interested, just comment here or send me an e-mail. I can't do this alone.
|

Friday, April 22, 2005

Google Rating

This site is now just below Debka itself on Google when you type in the search word "Debka."
|

Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Lebanon: Government Free From Syrian Control?

From Debka Main Page:
DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources report: Lebanon’s Mikati government was formed in consultation with Washington and Paris, the first not under Damascus’s thumb in more than two decades. Exiled Lebanese General Michel Aoun will return home and run for election as president.
I can't really guess one way or another if this is true. However, it should be easy enough to verify, should Aoun return sometime soon.
|

Tuesday, April 19, 2005

Israel: American's Training in Israel?

From Debka Main Page:

DEBKAfile’s military sources add details on long convoys of unmarked American military vehicles in S. Israel this week:

US Marines units are taking part in large-scale amphibian joint exercise with Israeli special operations units, including navy and air force. The Americans practiced landings on Israel beaches - one of which Nitzanim shore north of Gaza Strip.

Given this is taking place in Israel, fairly close to Debka's central control, if you will, I would think that it is probably true. However, I have heard nothing anywhere to confirm this. Given the scope of operations implied, I don't see how it could escape notice.

D

Confirmed! The Jerusalem Post confirms the story: Marines Storm Ashore. Thanks to Manker for pointing this out, it wasn't there when I first checked. Looks like my first suspicions were correct.
|

Sunday, April 17, 2005

Jordan: Plans to annext West Bank?

Debka Main Page:

DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources reveal: The coming buzzword at the court of Abdullah in Amman is “wilaya” – the old Ottoman term for province.

In process of dividing kingdom into three wilayas, Abdullah is mulling fourth on the West Bank if breakdown of order under Abbas or Hamas victory in July 17 poll sparks crisis.

Abdullah views Hamas (Muslim Brotherhood) takeover in Ramallah as threat to throne. A West Bank wilaya would open way to fresh thinking on Jewish settlement blocs.

There is also the "special report" as well.

But according to our Amman sources, Abdullah thinks the Palestinian Authority under Abu Mazen is sinking rapidly and may be beyond saving. What interests him most is the July 17 Palestinian election and its potential impact on stability in his kingdom given his large Palestinian population. Hamas’ prospects of sweeping the election improve as Abbas weakens. Of one thing Abdullah is certain: he cannot afford a Hamas takeover of Palestinian government in the West Bank and Gaza. The Palestinian Hamas terrorist group is not isolated or autonomous; it is a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, a worldwide jihadist movement whjch is strongest in the Arab world. A Brotherhood-dominated government in Ramallah would point a knife at the Hashemite throne in Amman.

Abdullah is therefore turning over the possibility of Jordan moving in to fill the power vacuum that would be formed on the West Bank by Abu Mazen’s downfall.


I find this unlikely. It just does't add up. Verification needed later

D
|

Saturday, April 16, 2005

Iraq: Hostage Rescue Attempt

A number of hostages have been taken in Iraq, according to Fox. Debka's Main Page reports:
After negotiations fail, US and Iraqi forces raid Iraqi town of Madean Saturday night to rescue 60 Shiite hostages threatened with death by Sunni rebels unless Shiites leave town.
This should easily be verifiable.

A

Update: This appears to be confirmed. Fox report here. However, things are still unclear.
|

Friday, April 15, 2005

Dated Article on Debka

This article by Wired is dated, from all the way back to 2001. But it offers some good information ont the site. An excerpt:

Debkafile -- based in the Jerusalem neighborhood of French Hill, equidistant from both Palestinian villages and the walls of the Old City -- has shown an ability to get that kind of coverage. USA Today, CNN and NBC all reported last Friday that American and British forces were in Afghanistan scouting out terrorist hiding places; Debkafile had the same story days earlier, and included details about Russian intelligence officers and German commandos joining in the incursions.

On the Saturday before, Debkafile ran a story that Saudi Arabia had refused to let the U.S. use its air bases to stage attacks on Afghanistan; it took The New York Times another two days to report this information.

Like the Drudge Report, which it resembles, Debkafile clearly reports with a point of view; the site is unabashedly in the hawkish camp of Israeli politics and has partnered with the far-right news site WorldNetDaily for a weekly, $120 subscription product.

That slant, combined with Debkafile's breakneck pace ­-- its eight-person staff updates the site as often as 5 or 6 times per day with terse, one-line tips and sparse news briefs -- means it often airs unfounded, inaccurate rumors while breaking legitimate news.

This contained some info I hadn't know before, and I am surprised I missed this for so long.
|

EU: Arms Sale Delay

Debka Main Page:
The European Union delays till June decision on lifting embargo on arms sale to China – in response to Washington’s demand
This is an important decision, for many reasons. It will take place after the May 29th French Referendum on the EU Constitution. Which means if the French vote non, the sales will not likely ever take place, as the French government, which is pushing the sales, will be far weaker. Washington knows this, of course, and knows that things aren't looking good in Paris right about now. So they want to delay the decision until after the French vote non.

A
|

Thursday, April 14, 2005

Help Wanted

I am far too busy to run this site on my own, and would love assistance by other bloggers. If you want to help run Debka Watch, send me an e-mail: finalhistorian@gmail.com. Or if that isn't working, post a comment at my normal site History's End. Hopefully we can get this site up and running in a few days.

Update: I am keeping this up at the top of the page for the time being.

Update: A big welcome to evariste, the second member of the Debka Watch Team!
|

Syria: Cracking Down on Al Qaeda?

Debka Main Page:

DEBKAfile’s Islam-watchers report: Islamic website issues travel warning to Syrian fighters crossing into Iraq to fight with insurgents.

Syrian regime said “up to its ears in work” for Americans, has set up checkpoints at Qameshli and Deir ez-Zor border zones and arrests all outsiders. Fighters advised not to display beards, long robes or pray at mosques.

I suspect that with all of the heat they are getting because of Lebanon, the Syrians don't want to anger the US anymore than can avoid. However, they have long supported such movement, or at the very least turned a blind eye to it.

C
|

Israel: Abbas Tries to clean house?

From Debka main page:
Palestinian leader Abbas ordered security forces reorganized and placed under three authorities. DEBKAfile’s Palestinian sources: The order is an empty gesture as Abbas lacks the tools and authority for ensuring that his orders are executed.
This seems likely to me. Abbas is pretty weak right now, and I don't know if he will last the year.

B
|

Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Rating System

I think that a rating system would be good to have, to let readers know what we think of the Debka info in question. Personally, I am inclined to a letter ranking system, like a grade, for either school or bonds. A, B, C, D, and F, with A being highest and F being lowest. My initial idea is this:

A: High chance of it being accurate
B: Good chance of it being accurate, over 50%
C: So, so chance of it being accurate, split 50-50
D: Poor chance of it being accurate, less than 50%
F: Total nonsense, almost certainly inaccurate

+ and - could be used to qualify them as needed.
|

Iraq: Sunnis being kept out of Iraqi government?

Debka Main page:
DEBKAfile adds: Washington is bent on stalling Shiite-Kurdish effort to cut Sunnis out of Iraqi national political process.
This doesn't seem likely in my opinion. Much of the recent stalling was apparently due to the Sunnis having trouble picking a speaker. I suspect that the current Shi'ite and Kurdish leadership realizes the importance of bringing Sunnis in.
|

Lebanon: Election Stalling

From Debka's main page:
Lebanese PM Karame steps down again after failing to form government capping weeks of political impasse since Hariri murder. DEBKAfile adds: Resignation is ruse to indefinitely postpone May election. Government must table election law by Friday for poll to take place next month.
This seems like something easy enough to verify, and also seems likely as well. I don't expect the Syrians to simply roll over.
|

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

New Ideas

I am thinking about borrowing a page or two from the Corner in terms of post format style. I want the blog to be involved, but also somewhat free-wheeling. I suspect it will be a work in progess for quite a while.
|

Sunday, April 10, 2005

Raison D'etre

Debka has been known throughout the blogosphere for years now. This blog was created in part because of their reputation, which is noted for inaccuracy. They are right just often enough to be useful, but wrong too often to be trusted most of the time. It is common to see people put up a disclaimer after using them as a source. The job of Debka Watch is to keep an eye on Debka, and to try and track their accuracy. The desired goal is a means of judging how often Debka is right, and on which subjects it is more accurate and on which is it less. Hopefully we can finally answer the question of whether or not Debka can be trusted.
|
Weblog Commenting and Trackback by HaloScan.com